The unallocated pool of IPv4 Internet addresses is predicted to run out before the industry has properly deployed IPv6, the technology designed to replace it. What could happen next?

This was the question put to a panel of Internet industry experts who played out a disturbing scenario in a 'Hypothetical' staged at APNIC 26 in Christchurch, New Zealand.

The Hypothetical featured a panel of business leaders, academics, researchers and government representatives who acted out fictional roles for imaginary organizations and countries set sometime in the not-too-distant future.

The Hypothetical was moderated by Jonny Martin, a leading Internet industry figure currently based in New Zealand. Martin took panellists on a journey through possible events and dilemmas that may occur before and after the remaining IPv4 address pool is exhausted.

APNIC 26 is being staged from 25 to 29 August, 2008 at the Christchurch Convention Centre, Christchurch, New Zealand. Held every six months, the meeting is a key event in the Internet addressing policy development agenda for the Asia Pacific region.

Taking perspectives that bear some resemblance to their real life responsibilities, the six panellists first spoke about how their fictional organizations were reacting to the depletion of available IPv4 resources.

As the story progressed, however, the scenario became more alarming as Martin frenetically painted a picture of the potential future caused by the industry's slow deployment of IPv6 and accelerated use of IPv4. In the hypothetical, industry estimates that the remaining pool of unallocated IPv4 address space would last until late 2011, proved to be wrong as network operators began to 'stock pile' address space in an effort to insure their future growth.

The Hypothetical explored possible reactions to such a scenario, which included the black market trading of IP addresses, changes to IP address allocation policies, and potential technology solutions to the shortage.

Panellists were faced with possible scenarios such as how the industry would deal with the unlicensed use of address space, the shortage of IPv6 skills and training, and the possibility that larger countries could be asked to return IPv4 address space for redistribution to fast-growing developing countries which would be hardest hit by the imagined circumstances.

The Hypothetical also explored how a legitimate IPv4 address trading scheme could provide an environment where network operators could legitimately buy and sell surplus address space.

"While exercises such as this Hypothetical may seem frivolous at first, the worst case scenario outlined today is not beyond the realms of possibility. The danger we face is that as IPv4 address space becomes increasingly scarce there are fears that strong demand for it could lead to a black market in IPv4 addresses," said Martin.

"The foundation of the Internet addressing policy to date has been one of open access based on need rather than ability to pay. Even in a legitimatized address trading environment, an open market could lead to a situation where the cost to obtain Internet address space could become prohibitive for developing economies," he said.

"The value of the Hypothetical was that it gave us the opportunity to move 'out-of-the-box' and get a fresh perspective on very real issues facing the Internet today. It was both educational and an opportunity to role-play how potential solutions may affect different parts of the industry," said Martin.

Hypothetical Panellists

Geoff Huston

Xing Li

Akinori Maemura

Dr Frank March

Tulika Pandey

Gaurab Raj Upadhaya

David Woodgate

The Hypothetical was moderated by:

Jonny Martin

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